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Is futures trading profitable? It can be, but only for a small, well-documented minority: studies using complete exchange data show that about 97% of day traders who stick with it lose money and that fewer than 1% earn consistent net profits. The problem is rarely the market itself; it’s the cost per trade, negative expectancy and badly sized risk. Below you’ll find the data, the real costs on MES, MNQ and ES, and the math that tells you whether a strategy has an edge.
The 30-second summary
- Brazil (mini Ibovespa): of 1,551 people who day traded for 300 days or more, 97% lost money and only 1.1% earned more than the minimum wage.
- Taiwan (15 years of data): fewer than 1% of day traders predictably earn profits net of fees.
- The true cost of a micro: about $1.90 per round turn on MES or MNQ at Tradovate’s published rates, plus slippage.
- Expectancy: a strategy with a 45% win rate and a 1:1.5 ratio makes $2.50 per trade gross on MES, but turns negative once costs are added.
- Simulated funded account: caps your maximum loss at the price of the account, but doesn’t change the strategy’s expectancy.
Is futures trading profitable? What the studies say
Most of the figures floating around (“90% lose”) have no source. The ones that do come from research that analyzed every trade on an exchange over years, without relying on surveys or screenshots.
| Study | Market and period | Main finding |
|---|---|---|
| Chague, De-Losso and Giovannetti, Day Trading for a Living? | Mini Ibovespa futures (Brazil), individuals who started between 2013 and 2015 (19,646 in total) | Of those who traded 300 days or more, 97% lost money; only 1.1% earned more than the minimum wage and just 0.4% more than a bank teller’s starting salary |
| Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean (2014), Journal of Financial Markets | Taiwanese day traders, 1992–2006 | Fewer than 1% can predictably earn abnormal returns net of fees |
| Barber, Lee, Liu, Odean and Zhang (2020), Review of Asset Pricing Studies | Taiwanese day traders | 97% are likely to lose money in their future day trading; losers tend to quit, but many keep going despite poor results |
| ESMA (2018) | Retail CFDs in the European Union | Between 74% and 89% of retail accounts lose money, according to national regulators’ analyses |
In the US, CFTC rule 17 CFR 5.5 requires retail forex dealers to publish the percentage of profitable accounts every quarter, a figure you can check on each regulated provider’s website.
The honest read: it isn’t impossible, but the base rate is against you. If someone shows you a much higher success rate, ask where it comes from.
Futures trading costs: commissions, fees, data and slippage
Every futures trade pays several charges that add up. If you’re not yet clear on how a contract works, start with what futures contracts are and how they work.
- Broker commission: at NinjaTrader in 2026, $0.39 per side on micros and $1.29 on standard contracts on the free plan; $0.09 and $0.59 with the lifetime license.
- Exchange, clearing and NFA fees: vary by contract. CME usually updates them once a year.
- Market data: the CME Level 1 bundle (CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX) costs $12 a month for non-professional users at NinjaTrader; Level 2, $48.
- Slippage: the difference between the price you expected and the price you get. It mostly affects stop orders and market orders on news.
Round-turn cost on MES, MNQ, ES and NQ
| Contract | Point value | Cost per side (all-in) | Round turn | Cost in points | 1 tick of slippage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MES (Micro S&P 500) | $5 | $0.95 | $1.90 | 0.38 points | $1.25 |
| MNQ (Micro Nasdaq-100) | $2 | $0.95 | $1.90 | 0.95 points | $0.50 |
| ES (E-mini S&P 500) | $50 | $2.88 | $5.76 | 0.12 points | $12.50 |
| NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) | $20 | $2.88 | $5.76 | 0.29 points | $5 |
A detail few people notice: relative to exposure, the micro is more expensive. An MES is one tenth of an ES, but its cost per trade is one third of the ES’s. On MES, each round turn costs you about 0.38 index points; on ES, 0.12. For a scalper aiming for 2 or 3 points, that difference matters.
How much can you make trading futures? The expectancy math
“How much can you make” has no honest number; the question that does have an answer is whether your strategy has positive expectancy. Here’s how to calculate it:
Expectancy per trade = (win rate × average net win) − (loss rate × average net loss)
The ratio R is the average win divided by the average loss. Without costs, the breakeven win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + R). With costs, that threshold rises, and it rises more the tighter your stop.
| R ratio | Breakeven win rate, no costs | MES with a 4-point stop ($20) | MES with a 10-point stop ($50) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1:1 | 50.0% | 56.1% | 52.5% |
| 1:1.5 | 40.0% | 45.2% | 42.1% |
| 1:2 | 33.3% | 37.8% | 35.1% |
| 1:3 | 25.0% | 28.5% | 26.4% |
Example: a “winning” strategy that loses on MES
Take an intraday strategy on 1 MES with a 4-point stop ($20), a 6-point target ($30) and a 45% win rate over a large sample.
- Gross: 0.45 × $30 − 0.55 × $20 = +$2.50 per trade. It looks like a profitable strategy.
- Net win: $30 − $1.90 in costs = $28.10.
- Net loss: $20 + $1.90 + $1.25 of slippage on the stop = $23.15.
- Net: 0.45 × $28.10 − 0.55 × $23.15 = −$0.09 per trade. The edge is gone.
Now scale up the volume: 2 MES, 8 trades a day and 20 days a month come to 320 round-turn contracts, about $608 a month in commissions and fees alone, plus data. This is the main reason studies find more profit before fees than after: in the Taiwan research, the top 500 day traders went from 61.3 to 37.9 basis points a day once costs were deducted, and the worst from −11.5 to −28.9.
What to do with this math
- Log every trade with costs included and calculate your expectancy over at least 100 trades, not one good week.
- If your stop on MES is very tight, test the same idea on MNQ with an equivalent dollar stop: the cost in points changes, and so does the result.
- Write down your rules in your own trading plan: if you can’t describe the entry and the stop, you can’t measure your edge.
Why most retail traders lose
Beyond costs, three patterns show up again and again, in the data and on any trading desk:
- Oversized risk: futures leverage makes a normal index move large relative to the balance. An ES moves $50 per point; a 60-point day is $3,000 per contract. More in leverage in trading: pros and risks.
- Persisting without evidence: the 2020 Taiwan study shows many traders keep going despite losing consistently.
- No daily limits: most accounts that blow up suddenly do so in one or two bad days. A daily loss limit and a fixed size cut that problem off; see best practices for risk management in trading.
Why a simulated funded account changes the risk equation
A funded account won’t turn a losing strategy into a winning one. What it changes is how much you can lose while you find out whether your strategy has an edge.
| Aspect | Your own brokerage account | Simulated funded account |
|---|---|---|
| Maximum loss | Your entire deposited balance (and, in extreme gaps, more) | The price you paid for the account |
| Daily limit | Set by you (if you stick to it) | Enforced by the rules; the account closes if you breach it |
| Capital needed to trade 1 ES | The broker’s margin plus a cushion | No capital deposited; you trade within the contract limits |
| Strategy expectancy | The same | The same |
| Additional risk | Losses larger than planned | Losing the cost of the account if you break a rule |
An example with numbers: to trade 1 ES seriously on your own, a prudent trader would want thousands of dollars in the account. In an evaluation with a $2,500 maximum drawdown, the worst case is losing the price of the account. If your expectancy is negative, you’ll lose that cost over and over; if it’s positive, the drawdown rules force you to sustain it with small risk per trade. Understanding drawdown in trading is half the job.
On funded traders’ rewards, see how much funded traders make; there is no guaranteed income.
Futures trading with Emerge Profit
Emerge Profit offers simulated trading futures accounts traded on Tradovate, NinjaTrader and TradingView, with the platform license included. You can use them to measure your expectancy under clear rules and with a maximum loss you know in advance:
- Futures Evaluation (from $60): EOD drawdown, 5-day minimum, 50% consistency rule and no activation fee. The MICRO account has an $850 target, a $350 daily loss limit and up to 5 micros; the 50K, a $2,500 target and a $2,500 drawdown. Positions are closed before the end of each session.
- Futures Instant Funding (from $130): no evaluation phase, Classic and Flex options, EOD or static drawdown, no time limit and news trading allowed.
Keep in mind the policies that affect expectancy: every trade must last at least 10 seconds, hedging is prohibited and the Operational Consistency and Position Sizing Rule stops you from jumping from micros to minis without a transition. If you’re also interested in oil and gold, see our guide to commodity trading.
Is futures trading profitable? FAQ
What percentage of futures traders make money?
In the study of mini Ibovespa futures in Brazil, 97% of those who traded 300 days or more lost money. In Taiwan, fewer than 1% of day traders predictably earned net profits. These are the figures with the best data available.
How much does it cost to trade one futures contract?
At Tradovate’s all-in free-plan rates, a micro like MES or MNQ costs about $1.90 per round turn, and an ES or NQ $5.76. Add market data and slippage on top.
How much can you make trading futures per month?
There’s no typical figure: it depends on the strategy’s expectancy, your size and the number of trades, and for most people the result is negative. Calculate your net expectancy over at least 100 trades before projecting any income.
Is it better to trade micros or minis?
Micros let you risk little per trade, but their costs weigh more proportionally: on MES a trade costs about 0.38 points and on ES 0.12. For learning and controlling risk, micros are the logical choice.
What win rate do I need to be profitable?
Without costs, 1 ÷ (1 + R): 50% at a 1:1 ratio and 33% at 1:2. With real-world costs and tight stops on MES, the threshold rises by 2 to 6 percentage points depending on the ratio.
Does a funded account make futures trading profitable?
No. It caps your maximum loss at the price of the account and imposes discipline through daily and drawdown limits, but your strategy’s expectancy stays the same.
Sources
- Chague, De-Losso and Giovannetti – Day Trading for a Living? (SSRN) and Quantpedia summary, Retail Day Trading is an Uphill Battle (accessed November 2026).
- Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean – The cross-section of speculator skill: Evidence from day trading, Journal of Financial Markets, 2014 (accessed November 2026).
- Barber, Lee, Liu, Odean and Zhang – Learning, Fast or Slow, Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 2020 (accessed November 2026).
- ESMA – ESMA agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs to protect retail investors, March 27, 2018 (accessed November 2026).
- Cornell LII – 17 CFR § 5.5, Distribution of risk disclosure statement (accessed November 2026).
- Tradovate – All-In Rates (rate table by contract; accessed November 2026).
- NinjaTrader – Pricing and Futures trading costs explained (commissions and market data; accessed November 2026).
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